Vic's Picks, Week 6: Can Cooper Rush keep the Cowboys winning? (2024)

Read: NFL picks against the spread for Week 1 of the 2023 season.

Well, this is the pivotal scene in the movie. The actor playing Cooper Rush will see the actor playing the role of Dak Prescott starting to throw again in practice, and there will be a screaming hot-take media guy saying it’s too bad that Prescott isn’t back from his thumb injury this week against the 5-0 Eagles.

And cue the music …

Rush is the first quarterback in Cowboys history to win his first five starts, and the pride and joy of the Central Michigan Chippewas has done a good job of not being a negative factor (he has four touchdowns and no interceptions in four starts this season.) But the real star of the movie will be Kevin James, who will play Mike McCarthy after somehow getting snubbed by the Oscars for his performance last year as Sean Payton in the Netflix movie “Home Team.”

McCarthy has been ripped since being hired by the Cowboys and people were even saying he didn’t really deserve credit for winning a Super Bowl ring with the Packers. I might have even said it. How mean is that? It was just a matter of time before Payton came out of retirement and took McCarthy’s job …

Well, McCarthy lost his starting quarterback and has the team playing better than they were with him. That’s pretty good leadership. Give defensive coordinator Dan Quinn credit as well. If the Cowboys beat the Eagles and Rush gets to start home games against the Lions and Bears, Prescott may never get his job back.

We’re going with two of the best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow and taking the Packers and Bengals in bounce-back games as our best bets.

Last week: 7-8–1 against the spread, 0-2 on best bets. Yup, I still stink. Our hopes for our first winning week died when the Buccaneers blew a huge lead to the Falcons and then Carson Wentz couldn’t score from the 1-yard line at the end of the Commanders’ loss to the Titans. The Rams and Jaguars were awful best bets, while the Raiders were easy winners against the spread Monday night.

We definitely might be cursed as our player props went 0-4. The Colts’ Nyheim Hines (we doubled up on him, rushing and receiving) was knocked out on the first play of the game and the Bengals’ Tee Higgins only made it 10 snaps before bowing out with a sore ankle. We had the under on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards, so we earned that L.

Season record: 34-43-3 ATS. (Plays of the week are 4-6 and player props are 4-6.)

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (+1) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video

Hey, this game can’t be as bad as last week’s Broncos–Colts eye-torture session. The Bears can’t throw the ball and they don’t even try. The Commanders looked terrible against the Titans (and still could have won). Wentz was actually better than most of his teammates and then coach Ron Rivera drove the bus over his quarterback at the Monday news conference. Blame the QB, not the coach.

We would probably look at Rivera’s career much differently if not for the fact that he once had Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly. He is calling for patience and seemingly has a big edge, though, on Thursday over Bears coach Matt Eberflus, as rookie coaches aren’t used to short-week challenges and are 8-19 against the spread on “Thursday Night Football.”

But Eberflus and defensive coordinator Alan Williams have the Bears playing hard and it seems like he and his staff are pretty good at developing players already.

PPP: The Commanders actually do a pretty good job stopping QB runs, and runs in general, so I took a pass on Justin Fields as a Player Prop that Pops. We’ll go with Bears kicker Cairo Santos over 1.5 field goals.

The pick: Bears (+1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

This is an obvious spot for the Buccaneers. The Bills just rolled over the Steelers, and this looks to be more dangerous waters for rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Bucs rank first in pass defense DVOA and third in sack rate (9.6 percent), and Todd Bowles is 11-3 as a coach/coordinator going against a rookie starting QB. (Tom Brady is 23-5 when facing a team starting a rookie QB, the last time he lost coming in 2013 against the Jets’ Geno Smith.)

We don’t like obvious spots and we’ll take the points. The Bucs are not a great team, as this spread on the road would seem to indicate. While Mike Tomlin said the Steelers “were a disaster in all three phases,” Pickett actually looked pretty good against the blitz last week and his receivers dropped five passes.

The pick: Steelers (+8.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (+2) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Teams have been happy to sit in Cover 2 against the Bengals — especially with Higgins on and off the field with injuries — and the answer seems simple. Run the ball. Joe Mixon had 14 carries for 78 yards last week against the Ravens, and if he had another six rushes against the many boxes with less than seven defensive players, the Bengals likely win that game. In fact, since Week 3, the Bengals are up to eighth in rushing success rate (45.1 percent).

The Saints aren’t bad against the run — 10th in rush defense DVOA and sixth in EPA/play vs. the run — but they did give up 151 yards to the Seahawks last week. We picked the Saints for the first time last week and are now 4-0-1 picking them. Ha, it’s all we’ve got. Jameis Winston may be back this week. Doesn’t matter. Mixon sets the table and Burrow (11-3 against the spread coming off a loss) and Ja’Marr Chase enjoy a nice homecoming. Tyler Boyd might eat, too.

The pick: Bengals (-2)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

We thought Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars were legit. We even laid the seven points, and then they lost straight up to the winless Texans at home. Lawrence couldn’t handle the Texans’ Cover 2 defense, coach Doug Pederson said. Great. Now the Jaguars get to feast on the Colts again after routing them 24-0 in Week 2. Lawrence had all day to throw in that one, while Colts QB Matt Ryan was under siege.

Ryan has been sacked 21 times and fumbled 11 times in five weeks — five of those sacks (and 12 hits) came against the Jaguars. Running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) didn’t practice Wednesday and Hines (concussion) was in a red non-contact jersey so Ryan may not have a lot of help this time. Rookie WR Alec Pierce is coming on, though Ryan doesn’t have a lot of time to find him or Michael Pittman Jr. On third and fourth downs, just 46.2 percent of Ryan’s throws have been at or past the sticks, the second-lowest rate among 30 qualified QBs.

The pick: Jaguars (+1.5)

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

People are jumping back on the Bill Belichick bandwagon after an easy win over a depleted Lions team, and there is definitely a formula to win again here: Take advantage of a Browns defense that missed eight tackles on run plays last week and feed Rhamondre Stevenson.

But the Browns are better than their 2-3 record indicates and covered the spread for me last week (they should have beat the Chargers). I will ride with them and the QB edge with Jacoby Brissett over Bailey Zappe. All Brissett has to do is make five timely throws against a defense that will be focused on stopping RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. And that will be an impossible task as well, as the Patriots rank 28th in run defense DVOA and have the eighth-worst defensive success rate vs. the run (55.7 percent).

The pick: Browns (-3)

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

There are only three undefeated QBs in the NFL, and Zach Wilson is one of them. Wilson seemingly had an easy time of it last week, after the Dolphins lost their second quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, on the first series, but that 40-17 win was only 19-17 after three quarters. The Packers have Rodgers — yeah, he is still good — and old/new favorite Randall Cobb and their defense will get a lot of pressure on Wilson. He is only 3-of-16 for 46 yards and two interceptions under pressure.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets have Carl Lawson but not very good linebackers. If Packers coach Matt LeFleur is finally over his London jet lag, maybe he will be alert enough to just feed Aaron Jones. Among 21 players with 60-plus carries, Jones is second in EPA/rush, first in YPC (6.39), first in yards before contact per carry (2.41), first in first-down rate (34.4 percent of his carries) and third in success rate (45.9 percent). The Packers usually bounce back after losses, and this game will resemble the outclassed Jets’ 27-12 loss to the Bengals last month.

PPP: Jones over 85.5 yards rushing and receiving.

The pick: Packers (-7.5)

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (+5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

The Giants get no respect. They are 4-1 and while they may not win outright Sunday, they are a gritty bunch and won’t lose by more than a field goal at home. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has a banged-up group overachieving and will now get to go against his old Ravens team and will surely have some tricks and blitzes up his sleeve for old friend Lamar Jackson.

The second-best player on the field will be Giants RB Saquon Barkley, and while they are getting some pass-rushing help, the Ravens rank 26th in run defense DVOA and 21st in EPA/rush. Among 14 players with 70-plus carries, Barkley ranks third in explosive run rate (11.3 percent). QB Daniel Jones will be doing his best Jackson impression as well — among six QBs who have run at least 35 times, Jones leads the group in first-down rate, moving the sticks with 51.2 percent of his carries. He ranks second to only Josh Allen in success rate as a runner (53.7 percent).

The pick: Giants (+5.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

If you’re worried about the Dolphins starting some guy named Skylar Thompson at QB Sunday, Tyreek Hill had the ping-pong table removed from the locker room so his teammates could lock in. The Dolphins will turn to Raheem Mostert to run the ball and hope that Hill and Jaylen Waddle get some yards after catch against a mediocre Vikings secondary. Oh yeah, and that the Florida heat helps wilt another visiting team.

We’re not terribly excited about that formula either, but we can’t take the overrated Vikings. They couldn’t cover the number against the one-dimensional Bears last week and it’s impossible to have faith in Kirk Cousins — even with Christian Darrisaw and an improving offensive line — against a blitzing defense. The Dolphins blitz at the NFL’s sixth-highest rate (33.5 percent), and by EPA/DB, Cousins is 29th out of 30 qualified QBs (100-plus attempts) when blitzed. There’s more, the Dolphins play man defense at the NFL’s third-highest rate (42.3 percent), and Cousins is 24th among 30 qualified QBs in EPA/DB vs man (fifth vs. zone). Put the two together and Cousins is the worst starting quarterback in the league when blitzed AND facing man coverage. Yowza.

The pick: Dolphins (+3.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Marcus Mariota’s perfect season continues. The Falcons QB is now 5-0 against the spread, all as an underdog — two coming back from huge deficits in garbage time. This takes a great, complex skill set. You can’t be able to throw the ball very well — Mariota is completing just 57.7 percent of his passes for 926 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions with a 78.8 rating — so that you can fall behind, but you are a good leader and very popular teammate so that your team doesn’t give up. Finally, you have to be fast and able to lead your team in rushing late in games when defenses start thinking about dinner plans.

Mariota might get a break this week as Nick Bosa (groin) may not play — Bosa’s 17 QB hits are the most of any player through five games since at least 2006, per Pro Football Focus. But it won’t matter. The 49ers are officially rolling now, and they have one of their favorite week-long layovers back east between games this week. The first three times that Kyle Shanahan’s crew didn’t come home between games, they beat the Bengals (2019), Giants (’20) and Eagles (’21) by an average margin of 18 points.

The pick: 49ers (-5.5)

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Rams are 1-3 ATS as double-digit favorites with Matthew Stafford at QB, and only one of those is this season, when Stafford has no offensive line and only one wide receiver. But I can’t back the Panthers anymore. I actually like the coaching change to Steve Wilks and you can’t be mad about Baker Mayfield being out, but PJ Walker against an angry Rams defense is not the ticket. Plus, RB Cam Akers should fare OK against this defense. When safety Jeremy Chinn comes back, the Panthers will have an interesting defensive core, but this three-game stretch against the 49ers, Rams and Bucs will fuel more talk of a fire sale.

Favorites of seven or more points have started the season 4-10 against the spread, but surely that can’t last. Right? Especially when the Rams called a meeting to change their mindset.

PPP: Akers over 41.5 yards rushing.

The pick: Rams (-10.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The NFL’s Next Gen Stats has a new stat, the Passing Score, which grades every quarterback using completion probability, expected yards after catch, expected points, win probability, interception probability, predicted expected points added and expected value of a pass attempt. The No. 2 and 3 quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes II (94) and Josh Allen (95). No. 1? Geno Smith (95). Smith will be asking for a raise soon as he leads the league with a completion percentage of 75.2, while the man he replaced, Russell Wilson, is 28th at 59.4. The Seahawks lost running back Rashaad Penny last week, but rookie Kenneth Walker III is actually an upgrade.

As for his counterpart Sunday, we had Kyler Murray covering against the Eagles last week. And he might have beat them if he hadn’t slid a yard early on a 9-yard run and then spiked the ball on third-and-1 to stop the clock, thinking he had picked up the first down. The Cardinals never win at home and are a mess, heading back out on the road and looking ahead to DeAndre Hopkins returning next week. You might be tempted because the Seahawks are allowing 2.96 points per drive (the third-worst through five games since 2000), but Murray and coach Kliff Kingsbury are clearly not on the same page.

The pick: Seahawks (+2.5)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Mahomes has never lost in the NFL as an underdog — he is 7-0-1 against the spread. And now he gets the Bills again in the rematch of last season’s playoff classic. But the Chiefs, with Tyreek Hill now in Miami, are 2-3 ATS this season (I have gone against them every week) and may have been lucky to escape with a win Monday night. Now, the Bills will likely take away Travis Kelce, too. The Bills rank first in pass defense DVOA vs. tight ends and have allowed 33.8 yards per game to TEs, the sixth-lowest in the league. The 8.05 yards/reception by TEs is the third-lowest allowed in the NFL.

Now, think of how much the Chiefs rely on Kelce. Among 23 players with at least 40 targets, Kelce leads the group with first downs on 61.9 percent of his targets (Baltimore’s Mark Andrews is second at 45.7 percent). Kelce also leads the group in EPA/target, with Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs in second place. Meanwhile, Ed Oliver is warming up as the Bills are able to get pressure without blitzing, which turns Mahomes from Captain America to Nighthawk. When pressured without a blitz, Mahomes ranks seventh in EPA/DB (-0.18), compared to first overall (0.31).

The Bills’ offense got Gabe Davis back from an ankle injury last week and he had three catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Allen threw for 348 yards in the first half of that game.

The pick: Bills (-3)

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)| 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

The only real competition for Allen for MVP honors is Jalen Hurts, the villain in our big-budget Kevin James movie. And while the biggest reason the Cowboys have won four games in a row is Micah Parsons and their pass rush, they won’t be going against the Bengals, Giants, Commanders or Rams offensive lines this week. The Eagles group is the real deal. While the Cowboys’ 49 QB hits through five games ranks second to only the 2020 Steelers (56), the Eagles have allowed just six non-sack hits on the QB, per PFF. That’s the third-fewest in the NFL.

That means the Eagles, who lost the two games against the Cowboys last season by a combined 45 points, will put some points up this time around. Rush will have to start making some plays. Only 26.9 percent of Rush’s third- and fourth-down pass attempts have moved the chains — the fourth-lowest rate among QBs with 100-plus total attempts. This spread should be 7 or 8.

The pick: Eagles (-6)

Denver Broncos atLos Angeles Chargers (-5.5)| 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

After Russell Wilson’s horrible showing last week, capped off by receiver KJ Hamler showing up his quarterback by repeatedly slamming his helmet against the turf, you knew there had to be some spin coming. Wilson, it was reported the next day, has been playing with a sore shoulder. He will let it ride Monday night, and needs to start using his legs more to extend plays and help get this offense going. Because the throwing issues are not new. And we’re not just talking about missing reads. One of the reasons the Seahawks were happy to see Wilson go was his declining skills throwing the ball deep. Here are his completion numbers throwing the ball 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, per Next Gen Stats.

2018: 31-63, 49.2 percent, first in NFL
2019: 35-82, 42.7 percent, fourth
2020: 26-68, 38.2 percent, 16th
2021: 26-71, 36.6 percent, 18th
2022 (Denver): 8-27, 29.6 percent, 21st

The Broncos defense has kept them in games, as they have allowed touchdowns on just 27.3 percent of opponents’ red zone drives — the lowest rate in the NFL. But it’s impossible to have any faith in Wilson and seemingly-overmatched rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett — who is ripping out pages from the playbook — right now. Even against an inconsistent Chargers defense.

The pick: Chargers (-5.5)

Byes: Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

—TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.

(Graphic: John Bradford /The Athletic; photo of Cooper Rush: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)