NFL Week 8 expert picks and odds for 49ers vs. Bengals, Giants vs. Jets and every other game (2024)

Read the latest edition of The Athletic’s NFL expert picks.

There are some big spreads across the NFL Week 8 as eight teams going into the week favored by more than six points. Those teams include the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions.

The Eagles (at Washington), Chiefs (at Broncos) and Ravens (at Cardinals) all have those lines as road favorites.

Miami is the biggest favorite of the week and is favored by nearly double digits against a New England Patriots team coming off a stunning upset win over the Buffalo Bills. And speaking of the Bills, this is the third week they enter a game as more than a touchdown favorite. They have failed to cover in the past two games, losing one of them outright and needing a stop on Tyrod Taylor on the game’s final play to win the other.

The San Francisco 49ers are also favored by more than a field goal at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The line originally was 5.5, but Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol. The 49ers have lost consecutive games and not looking anywhere near as dominant as they were earlier in the season. The Bengals are coming in from their bye week, while the 49ers have a short week after playing on Monday night. Something to watch there is that the Bengals are 6-5 against the spread under Zac Taylor when they have a rest advantage over their opponent but only 2-3 against the spread following a bye.

Allodds from BetMGM and update live. Additional stats via statmuse, TruMedia and Pro-Football-Reference. Special thanks to Jason Starrett for TruMedia NFL notes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (Thursday)

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Bills are stuck in the mud at the moment, especially in their last three games, where they lost to the Jags and Patriots and barely beat the Giants. A 3-1 powerhouse is now a 4-3 quagmire. A week ago, Mike Sando tweeted this:

#bills rank 3rd in offensive EPA per play and 6th in offensive success rate … and Josh Allen spends half his press conference fielding questions like, hey, do you still have faith in your OC?

— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) October 18, 2023

• And this week, Sando noted, “The Bills actually made statisticalgains in both areas… But with their defense and special teams suffering their worst combined performance of the season (minus-13.7 EPA), the Bills lost the game.”
• The Bucs have playmakers (although they haven’t been consistently putting up numbers of season past) and their defense leads the NFL in turnover margin, at +7. So the question now becomes: will the Bills continue to struggle? Or will this be a statement game on the big Thursday night stage?

How to Watch

8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Panthers and the Texans had the first and second picks in the NFL Draft this year, respectively. The Panthers are 0-6 with Bryce Young; the Texans are 3-3 with C.J. Stroud.
• QBs have been taken with the first two picks just nine times in NFL history. Those No. 1 and 2 picks have faced each other as rookies four times. 1998: Manning vs. Leaf. 2012: Luck vs. Griffin (preseason). 2015: Mariota vs. Winston. 2021: Wilson vs. Lawrence.
• The Panthers have a new play-caller in Thomas Brown. This will be the former Rams assistant’s first game running the offense as the team comes off their bye.

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on FOX.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Dolphins activated cornerback Jalen Ramsey off IR on Saturday and he’s expected to make his season debut on Sunday.
• The Pats may be having an “off” season again, but outside of the back-to-back blowouts at the hands of the Cowboys and (checks note)…uh… Saints, they’ve lost every game by seven points or less.
• That includes a Week 2 loss to the Dolphins, 24-17, in which, one could argue, Mac Jones played a better game than Tua Tagovailoa.
• In that Week 2 loss, the total was 46 (the teams went under by 5). And while Dolphins games have been wildly erratic for the total, they are 5-2 against the spread this season.

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on CBS.

New York Jets at New York Giants

Notes and Fun Facts

• Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) will miss another game. Tyrod Taylor will get his third start if Jones is unable to play.
• This is the first time the Jets are favored this season.
• Zach Wilson before Joe Namath’s comments on Sept. 26: 155.7 pass yards per game, 2 TD, 4 INT, 57 rating, Jets 1-2
• Zach Wilson after Joe Namath’s comments on Sept. 26: 210 pass yards per game, 2 TD, 1 INT, 87.5 rating, Jets 2-1
• Since Namath’s comments, the Jets have been 3-0 against the spread (they were 1-2 before).

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

Notes and Fun Facts

• While the Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman career resurgences are fantastic stories, a word of caution for fantasy players embracing Henderson — the Rams used to toy with his playing time. The most famous (and frustrating) occurrence was Week 4 of 2020 — Henderson ran 20 times for 114 yards and followed up with 8 for 21. the reasoning was that Malcolm Brown was a better fit against the Giants’ defense. It was three years ago, but same coach and philosophy.
• The Rams released kicker Brett Maher after he missed two field goals and an extra point in Week 7.
• The Cowboys’ win against the Chargers last week was the first time this season they came within 10 points of the spread (the spread was -1.5 and they won by 3). Their other games? via statmuse:

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on FOX.

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

Notes and Fun Facts

• Every game the Colts have played this year has featured a total of between 40 and 45.5 points. They’ve gone over in five of seven games.
• Jonathan Taylor rushed for 75 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown and caught three receptions for 45 yards in their Week 7 loss to the Browns. He played just 50 percent of the snaps.
• Ted Nguyen considers Shane Steichen “one of the best offensive game planners in the league.” In his column on the best and worst coaching decisions of the week, Nguyen points out how, “the Colts negated the Browns’ pass rush with the hard count and hit on a couple of explosive passes on free plays, Steichen’s play designs created wide-open receivers for Gardner Minshew on a few occasions, and his RPO designs in the red zone confused the defense enough for Minshew to run in for a couple of touchdowns.”

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Vikings have hit the under in all but one of their games this season (Week 2 against the Eagles)
• The Packers have been slight underdogs in every game this season. They haven’t played a game with a spread of more than 3 points and their biggest moneyline was +129 against the Falcons.
• The Packers’ average moneyline this year has been +109.5. They’ve been home underdogs just 10 times since 2016 — three of those instances have come this season.
• According to TruMedia, the Vikings have scored exactly as many points as they have given up in the second half of their games this season.

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Cordarrelle Patterson anytime TD prop may be interesting to track. The Falcons’ offense has been getting first downs and yards, but not touchdowns. Patterson played 40% of the snaps last week (after 6% and 12% the previous two) and while it was likely due to Bijan Robinson’s headache, Patterson has a nose for the end zone, having scored 19 touchdowns the last two seasons in this offense.
• Titans coach Mike Vrabel said rookie Will Levis and second-year quarterback Malik Willis will both play with Ryan Tannehill out. Levis may receive most of the snaps after Willis struggled to replace Tannehill against Baltimore when he was sacked four times in just two drives.
• If this point total holds at 36.5, it will be the third lowest O/U in the NFL this season. Of the Bottom 12, eight went under, one pushed, and three were over.

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Notes and Fun Facts

• If you knock out the first week, the Steelers have won every game in which they’ve been an underdog this season and lost the one where they were a favorite.
• According to NextGen stats, George Pickens has 45.56% of the Steelers’ targeted air yards — fourth-most among WRs in the league. He has just 27 receptions on the year.
• From Jake Ciely’s Fantasy Football rankings, teams attempt a league-high 43.4 pass plays per game against the Jaguars.
• Trevor Lawrence practiced on Wednesday, but he is continuing to nurse a knee injury he played through last week against the Saints.
• Per TruMedia, Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley has drawn four flags for defensive pass interference this season (tied for most in the NFL) and defenses were docked a total of 80 yards on those penalties, third most from DPI flags by any player.

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Notes and Fun Facts

• TruMedia has a “Cook Index,” which measures the percentage of plays that were passes on first or second down in the game’s first 28 minutes. The league leader? the Commanders, at 65.5%.
• The Commanders also have the longest average 3rd down distance in the league, at 8.95 yards. In other words, “3rd and 8.95.” The team with the best average in the league is Jacksonville, at 6.05.
• Philadelphia averages the most rush attempts per game in the league with 33.6 attempts.
• The Eagles defense continues to struggle against the pass, primarily against tight ends, with the second-best EPA against Philadephia.

How to Watch

1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks

Notes and Fun Facts

• Deshaun Watson is out for Week 8. Despite not putting up the greatest numbers, PJ Walker is expected to start and has two wins as Watson’s replacement.
• The Browns’ running back situation is fluid with Jerome Ford expected to miss two weeks. Zac Jackson says we should expect Kareem Hunt to be the lead, with a healthy mix of Pierre Strong. “Expect Pierre Strong Jr. to go from special teamer and deep backup to a steady role as running back 1-B alongside Hunt,” Jackson wrote in the news piece about Ford’s injury.
• Jaxson Smith-Njigba took advantage of DK Metcalf’s injury last week, putting up a 7/4/63/TD performance. Expect him to continue to produce even when Metcalf returns. Metcalf practiced on Wednesday.

How to Watch

4:05 p.m. ET on FOX.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Broncos are 1-5-1 against the spread this season. Their only “win” against the spread came last week, in a 19-17 victory over the Packers.
• These teams met two weeks ago, with Kansas City winning, 19-8. Despite a somewhat moral victory for the Broncos — holding the Chiefs to just 19 points — they failed to cover the 10.5 point spread.
• The 19 points scored by Kansas City marked the third time this season they’ve failed to score 21 points in a game.
• Since Week 3, Isiah Pacheco has the eighth-most rushing yards in the NFL (326). Denver leads the league with 1,171 rushing yards allowed.

How to Watch

4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers

Notes and Fun Facts

• 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy entered concussion protocol after Monday’s loss to the Vikings. He has cleared protocol and will start Sunday.
• In our latest Power Rankings, the 49ers are No. 5 and the Bengals are No. 11.
• The Cincinnati run game isn’t great this season. As Josh Kendall notes, “Cincinnati was eighth in the league in rushing success rate in 2022 (41.1 percent) and 23rd in 2021 (37.3). This year, the Bengals sit 30th at 30.9 percent, andJoe Mixon is the only back with more than five carries this season.”
• The 49ers are currently +550 to win the Super Bowl. Cincinnati is +2200.

How to Watch

4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals

Notes and Fun Facts

• The Cardinals have outscored opponents by 19 points in the first half this season but have been outscored by 74 (the worst in the league) in the second half.
• Arizona has blitzed on an NFL-low 8.2% of opponent dropbacks this season, and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has thrived when defenses sit back. Jackson leads the NFL with a 110.2 passer rating against a standard rush with a league-best 77.0% completion percentage on such throws.
• From Jeff Zrebiec: Lamar Jackson has fumbled the ball eight times this year and lost five. Three of the fumbles have involved handoff issues with Hill. It goes without saying that this needs to get fixed, and fast, or it’s going to be tough for the Ravens to count on Hill late in games.
• Also from Jeff Zrebiec: With Jackson at the helm, the Ravens are 16-1 against NFC teams. The next two games on their schedule? At Arizona and home versus Seattle.

How to Watch

4:25 p.m. ET on CBS

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers

Notes and Fun Facts

• Matt Eberflus likes to give all of his players nicknames. According to Kevin Fishbain, some of the best include nickelback Kyler Gordon: “Spider-Man.” LinebackerTremaine Edmunds is “The Predator.” Safety Jaquan Brisker is “Mako Shark.” Nose tackleAndrew Billingsis “The Juggernaut.”
• The Bears have hit the over in all but one game this season — a 19-13 loss to the Vikings (44.5 O/U).
• D’Onta Foreman is averaging 4.7 YPC this season, a career-high. His jersey No. 21 is the fifth number he’s had in his NFL career.
• Bears quarterback Justin Fields is out. Tyson Bagent will get his second start.

How to Watch

8:25 p.m. ET on NBC.

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (Monday)

Game Preview/Notes/Fun Facts

• Jimmy Garoppolo will likely start after missing last week’s game with a back injury.
• The Lions lead the league in “Go For It” percentage, going for it 32% of the time on fourth down.
• The Raisers have crossed the 20 point threshold just once this season. Slow starts have plagued the Raiders of late as their opponents have taken the first lead in three of the last four games.
• From Vic Tafur: “The Raiders still seem like a rudderless ship just waiting for the next big wave to hit.”

How to Watch

8:15 p.m. on ABC, ESPN

( Photo of Trey Hendrickson: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)