Vic's Picks, Week 8: Aaron Rodgers has a point about the Packers (2024)

Read: NFL picks against the spread for Week 1 of the 2023 season.

When things aren’t going well, one can either look inward or start pointing fingers.

Aaron Rodgers basically said Tuesday — and doubled down Wednesday — that he was playing great and his Packers teammates are making a lot of mistakes. While many had a problem with that, I respect his honesty and confidence. He was somehow trampled on a running play in that loss to the Commanders on Sunday, and his receivers may be an even bigger issue than his offensive line. His coaching staff hasn’t helped him because they refuse to reshape the offense around talented running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

I feel the same way as Rodgers. Not only did I not have my first winning week, but I went 5-9 against the spread. (I am happy for those who are going against my picks — that pumpkin spice latte is on me.) I took a close look at my struggles this year, and I see the problem …

The league stinks.

The quality of play has gone down across the board, and not only have there been a lot of unwatchable and unbettable games, but the average margin of victory (9.0 points) is the lowest in league history. … And the Giants are 6-1!

Unlike Rodgers, I don’t have to play the Bills on the road this week. Things will even out for us. I think I will go on social media and guarantee a winning week, or I will buy someone a gift subscription. This week’s best bets — we are making it three games instead of two since I am going to get hot — are the Jaguars over the Broncos, the Eagles over the Steelers and the Bills over the Packers.

Last week: 5-9. Some of the wounds were self-inflicted. I have been talking up Bears coach Matt Eberflus all year and then I don’t take Chicago with a bunch of points and extra preparation time. He dominated Bill Belichick. I write that the Bengals will jump out to a big lead and (wince) pick the Falcons to come back and cover the spread. Joe Burrow never gave the ball back. The Ravens should have covered against the Browns and we went 0-2 on our best bets, with the Chargers getting pounded at home again — this time against the Seahawks.

Player Props that Pop went 1-1, as the under on the Saints’ Alvin Kamara’s 105.5 rushing and receiving yards lost by 4.5 yards while Washington’s Terry McLaurin was an easy over winner at 50.5 receiving yards.

Season record: 46-59-3 ATS (Plays of the week are 5-9)

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video

The Ravens are going on a run, despite them fumbling away the cover for us last week against the Browns. Baltimore and Philadelphia are the only teams to have led by 10-plus points in all of their games this season. Yet the Ravens are 4-3 while the Eagles are undefeated. Injuries and turnovers have held them back, but we are going to ride with Lamar Jackson, who has more rushing yards (510) than the entire Bucs team (451) — on 82 fewer rush attempts! The Ravens are second in the NFL at 5.4 yards per carry; the Bucs are last at 3.05. And Jackson should be able to handle the Bucs’ blitzing.

The Bucs have not covered in five straight games, as they can’t run the ball or pass it and their defense has been disappointing. It’s the worst rushing team that Tom Brady has ever had — they’re last among all Brady-led teams in EPA/rush (-0.2) and yards per carry (3.05). Rachaad White has been better than Leonard Fournette — he has averaged even fewer yards before contact than Fournette (0.88 compared to 1.18), yet he has a 46.2 percent success rate compared to Fournette’s 38.8 — but the Bucs haven’t made the switch.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have interior line and speed issues. Just 11.5 percent of Brady’s passes have gone for 16-plus yards, the third-lowest rate through seven games in his career.

PPP: Fournette under 50.5 rushing yards.

The pick: There is no line value, but we will take the Ravens (-1)

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5), London | 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network

Just think, if Trevor Lawrence’s last pass Sunday was a yard farther, nobody would be talking about the Giants this week. Two weeks ago, the Jaguars gave up a late touchdown to Matt Ryan — in what will go down as Ryan’s last-ever highlight — to lose. Jacksonville has lost four straight games, and while it is one of nine teams to play in five or more one-score games, they’re the only one of those teams that has yet to win one.

The Broncos have played in six such games and are 2-4. Russell Wilson is back this week, and we’ll see how he responds to all the Jaguars’ blitzes.

It’s a must-win game for the Broncos, as indications are that they will be sellers at next week’s trade deadline if they lose again. Pass rusher Bradley Chubb would be a nice get for someone— among 82 players with 150-plus pass rush snaps, Chubb ranks 20th in pressure rate (13.2 percent) — while WR Jerry Jeudy would be more of a speculative add. Jeudy ranks 22nd in yards/route (1.75) and seventh in yards/reception (16.08), but his catch rate (51.1 percent) is 51st out of 52 players with 40-plus targets. I wonder if each player wouldn’t enjoy a change of scenery.

Speaking of which, are we sure coach Nathaniel Hackett makes the flight back from London if Wilson struggles again?

The pick: Jaguars (-2.5)

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Our early-season faith in the Panthers’ defense was rewarded last week when they dominated the Bucs, and they should do well here against a run-heavy Falcons team. Both of these teams will hand the ball off often, andCarolina ranks 13th in run defense DVOA, while Atlanta ranks 26th.

The Panthers are better than their record, but struggle against teams with good pass rushers. The Falcons are not that team. Plus, their secondary is banged up, and the Panthers should turn quarterback PJ Walker loose again. Two weeks ago, against the Rams, 81.3 percent of Walker’s passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage — none were 20-plus yards downfield — and then last week, only 36.4 percent of his passes were at or behind the line while 18.2 percent were 20-plus yards downfield.

We liked this game a lot better at plus-6.5 before it was bet down, but the Panthers are playing hard for a popular interim coach and probably win straight up (the money line is plus-180).

The pick: Panthers (+4.5)

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Here I go again, going against my guy Eberflus. There has to be some regression this week, as Justin Fields was putting up points like crazy against the Patriots after struggling to hit barn doors all season. While Fields had a career-high 10 designed runs for 56 yards last week, he also enjoyed his best passing day outside of the pocket in Week 7, as he was 6-for-9 for 104 yards and six first downs, while being sacked three times.

The Cowboys may have the best defense in the NFL — they rank first in pass defense DVOA and 12th in run defense DVOA — and superhero Micah Parsons and company should feast against a patchwork offensive line that has now lost center Lucas Patrick. On the other side of the ball, QB Dak Prescott shook off some rust last week and running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard should keep the chains moving against a Bears defense that has given up 4.7 yards per carry.

Plus, you have to wonder how Bears players respond to the trade of team captain and pass rusher Robert Quinn to the Eagles on Wednesday.

The pick: Cowboys (-9.5)

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (+3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

The Lions’ 18-point loss to the Cowboys was misleading, as Dallas had only 18 more yards than Detroit. D’Andre Swift should be back for the Lions — yeah, we thought he would be back last week — and the running back has been missed. The Lions rank 25th in EPA/rush (-0.09) and 21st in yards before contact per carry (1.45) since Week 4.

Tua Tagovailoa was lucky not to have four interceptions in his return game against the Steelers. The Lions don’t do a lot well defensively — Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert could have a big game if he can stay on the field — but they do blitz pretty well and get some pressure on the quarterback with Aidan Hutchinson (his 16.7 percent pressure rate vs. the Cowboys was a season-best).

Give me the hyped-up coach — who got the dreaded vote of confidence from the owner this week— and the home underdog to at least lose by just a field goal.

The pick: Lions (+3.5)

Arizona Cardinals atMinnesota Vikings (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

There is a pretty good chance the Vikings are frauds at 5-1, and that’s a popular theory given that this line has already been bet down by 1.5 points. The Vikings might be buyers at the trade deadline, but they could feel differently after this game. We picked the Cardinals last week because their defense is better than you think and they should have success this week blitzing Kirk Cousins. They will have to withstand a good start by the Vikings, as the disparity in offensive scripts between Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell and Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is immense. On their first two possessions of games, the Vikings rank seventh in EPA per drive, while the Cardinals rank 26th.

Kyler Murray is better as the games go on and he tunes out Kingsbury and scrambles more often, and now he has DeAndre Hopkins back. In his first game back from suspension, Hopkins received 48.3 percent of the Cardinals’ targets, the third-highest target share of any player in a game this season. And the Vikings rank 31st in pass defense DVOA overall and 31st vs. No. 1 receivers.

The pick: Cardinals (+3.5)

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

We haven’t missed on a Saints pick this season (they are 1-5-1 ATS), and one reason to consider them this week is an edge that they share with the Cardinals above: They have an extra three days to prepare, coming off a Thursday night game. After a bizarre 1-7 start ATS, teams coming off Thursday night games have covered four straight. In a league with such erratic play, extra rest and preparation must be worth something.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have found a formula for success in winning two of their last three games: hand the ball to Josh Jacobs. Among 10 players with 100-plus rush attempts this season, Jacobs ranks first in rushing success rate (51.4 percent) and first downs per rush (32.4 percent). He also ranks second in yards after contact per rush (3.98).

The Saints rank 22nd in run defense, so Jacobs should keep on motoring. They can’t really put another player in the box, as the Raiders have Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow getting open and tight end Darren Waller likely back from a hamstring injury (he practiced Wednesday). I don’t know how the Raiders defense is going to stop Kamara or Taysom Hill, but in a shootout, Derek Carr is a good deal better than Andy Dalton, who gets the start over a now-healthy Jameis Winston.

The pick: Raiders (-1.5)

New England Patriots atNew York Jets (+2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

It’s hard to imagine a team getting hit harder by injuries than the Jets did last week. They lost RB Breece Hall, who was on a path to win the Rookie of the Year Award, and stud OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, who we jinxed by making our cover photo for last week’s picks. The Jets quickly traded with Jacksonville for RB James Robinson, but he is no Hall. Among 20 RBs with 80-plus carries, no player has had a higher percentage of his carries go for negative or zero yards than Robinson (28.4 percent).

Matt Judon and the Patriots defense, coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bears, will come after Jets QB Zach Wilson. Just 7.1 percent of Wilson’s attempts under pressure have resulted in first downs (the next-worst QB is Tom Brady at 12.3 percent). The Jets are sixth in total rushing EPA and 27th in total passing EPA since Week 4, and that was with Hall and Vera-Tucker.

The Patriots beat the Jets by a composite 79-19 score in two games last season and have won 12 straight in the matchup. I say make it 13, and I don’t even care who is playing QB for the Patriots or how badly Belichick screwed that up.

The pick: Patriots (-2.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Mike Tomlin has put on a coaching clinic the last few weeks. He has an injury-plagued team with a recently promoted rookie quarterback, and the Steelers beat the Bucs and should have beaten the Dolphins. They will have some tough choices to make next week at the trade deadline, but as far as this Sunday, it’s hard to see quarterback Kenny Pickett and that offense putting up a lot of points against a tough Eagles defense coming off a bye week.

The Steelers have the seventh-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (45.9 percent early-down pass rate in the first 28 minutes, according to the Cook Index), but RB Najee Harris ranks last in success rate (29 percent) among 10 RBs with 100-plus carries. The Eagles rank sixth in defensive DVOA on first down and fifth on second-and-long. And while Pickett has held up well under pressure (ninth in EPA/DB under pressure), the Eagles added Quinn and you have to figure a talented Eagles secondary is licking its chops.

Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts will have fresh legs, and the Steelers defense was vulnerable the last time they faced a top rushing quarterback. Josh Allen had his second-fewest rushing attempts of the season (five) in the Bills’ 38-3 win over the Steelers, but one run went for 21 yards and another went for 16.

The pick: Eagles (-10.5)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+2) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Looking at that spread, the 4-2 Titans get no respect. I am not sure they should, given that their four-game winning streak has come by a total of 22 points, quarterback Ryan Tannehill has a bum ankle and they have the worst receiving corps in the NFL. Mike Vrabel, who owns the Colts. would be running away with Coach of the Year honors if not for the Giants’ Brian Daboll.

This game features the two hardest runners in the league in Derrick Henry and Dameon Pierce. Henry has mostly been his usual self this season, though he has generated an explosive rush (12-plus yards) on 8.2 percent of carries, which would be his lowest mark in a full season since 2017. But now he faces a Texans team that ranks last in rush defense DVOA, has allowed a league-leading 32 runs of 10-plus yards and had leading defensive lineman Maliek Collins go down last week.

The Texans have overachieved and have a plus-10 differential in the first three quarters this season, but they’re 31st with a minus-41 differential in the fourth quarter. They’ve had a lead of 10-plus points only once this season: Week 1 vs. the Colts, a game that ended in a tie. You’re basically betting on them to win here, and that seems like a big stretch against a team with a big coaching edge and a favorable matchup for Henry.

The pick: Titans (-2)

Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Colts will say they didn’t wave the white flag when they benched Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, but they most certainly did. Coach Frank Reich has no idea how to fix the running game or a soft defense, and the owner didn’t want to spend another $17 million and watch Ryan, with his snail speeded, get sacked and fumble another couple dozen times. That’s how much the Colts will save in Ryan’s additional salary guarantees and 2023 roster bonus if he sustained an injury.

The Commanders, meanwhile, have won two games in a row. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is not very good, but he can scramble and he throws to McLaurin, so he’s a lot better than Carson Wentz. Wentz ranked seventh in sack rate on pressured dropbacks (27.2 percent), which Heinicke cut in ninths. Heinicke had a 2.9 percent sack rate in the win over the Packers despite the Commanders allowing pressure on a season-high 51.4 percent of dropbacks. Defensively, the Commanders can stop the run, so the Colts need Ehlinger — a 2021 sixth-round pick who doesn’t have a plus arm and likes to run for tough yards — to play very well to win.

The pick: Commanders (+2.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The 49ers may have gotten a little too happy before last week’s loss to the Chiefs, having traded for Christian McCaffrey and believing everyone who said they were Super Bowl contenders. Their receivers dropped some big passes, Patrick Mahomes got on a roll and a close game turned into a blowout loss. Luckily, the Rams, with all their questions, are up next on the schedule — the Niners have beaten the Rams in seven of their last eight meetings, including a thorough beating earlier this season.

The Rams will have to deal with McCaffrey on third downs. But the problem is that Kyle Shanahan already owned good buddy Sean McVay and the Rams’ coaching staff on third downs. Since 2021, including the playoffs, the 49ers have converted 25 of 49 third downs vs. the Rams. Break it down, and they’re 9-of-11 on third-and-short (3 yards or fewer to go), 10-of-16 on third-and-medium (4 to 6 yards to go) and 6-of-22 on third-and-long (7 or more yards to go).

The Niners are also getting healthier on defense, and Nick Bosa will make life miserable for Matthew Stafford. Just like last time. And the time before that …

The pick: 49ers (-1.5)

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3)| 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

With the Rams, Bucs and Packers all struggling, the NFC is wide open and the Giants have jumped up thanks to great coaching, Saquon Barkley and some high-wire poise. The Giants are the third team in NFL history to register six wins, each by a final margin of eight or fewer points, within their first seven games of a season. They are also the third team ever to win at least five of their first seven games when trailing in the second half.

Now, this can’t possibly continue, right?

Well, the Seahawks not only don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, but they struggle with QB runs, which sets up nicely for Daniel Jones. Among seven QBs who have rushed 40-plus times, Jones ranks second in explosive run rate (17.2 percent).

That being said, I am fading the Giants defense this week. They have been second-worst in the league at preventing big runs — behind only the Texans — with a 12.5 percent explosive run allowed rate, and Seahawks rookie Kenneth Walker III leads the league in explosive rush rate (16.4 percent of his runs have gone for 12-plus yards). And the Giants won’t be able to blitz as often as they would like. Geno Smith is completing 72.4 percent of his passes, with a 7.1 YPA, when defenses come after him and he might not even miss DK Metcalf if the receiver is out Sunday.

The pick: Seahawks (-3)

Green Bay Packers atBuffalo Bills (-11.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

This is the first time Rodgers has been a double-digit underdog in his career. Despite all of his other issues, he is also playing with a banged-up thumb. And he is facing the best team in the league that is playing only its third home game of the season in front of a rabid fan base. The Bills take care of business despite inflated point spreads, as they are 4-1-1 ATS this year. Dating back to 2021, this is the 10th time the Bills are double-digit favorites — and they’re 8-1 overall and 6-1-2 ATS in the previous nine.

If it feels like a passing-the-torch kind of game, it is. Allen ranks second in attempts of 15-plus air yards (54) and third in completion rate (55.6 percent), while the Packers have allowed a league-worst 60.9 percent completion rate on passes of 15-plus air yards. (Receiver Gabe Davis has accounted for 11.1 percent of the Bills’ total targets, but 24.5 percent of the Bills’ targets of 15-plus air yards.)

The pick: Bills (-11.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

The Browns players don’t need to wear a mask on Halloween — just their uniforms apparently scare Burrow. They are 3-0 against him since he came into the league. But Burrow could have set the league’s passing record last week if the Falcons had put up more of a fight, and the offense has turned a corner since switching to shotgun more often. The past three weeks (88, 96 and 80 percent, respectively) have been the three highest shotgun rates for the Bengals offense in the past two seasons.

Burrow is thriving. Here are his numbers from shotgun: 69 percent completion rate, 7.9 YPA, 104.9 passer rating, 2.38 seconds to throw. And here they are under center: 67.9 percent, 6.61 YPA, 83.2 rating, 2.67 seconds to throw. The Bengals have also posted a 46 percent success rate running out of shotgun, compared to 37.5 percent under center. The Browns run defense has been bad in general, but especially vs. shotgun runs. Their 11.3 percent explosive run allowed rate vs. shotgun is the ninth-highest in the league.

It should be a big night for Joe Mixon, but the Bengals will need it, as their run defense without DJ Reader ranks fifth in explosive run allowed rate (12.4 percent). The Browns have had late-game issues and are another team that could be trading players with another loss, and I think Burrow, Mixon and some rookies that are starting to contribute push them over the edge.

The pick: Bengals (-3.5)

Byes: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers

—TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.

(Graphic: John Bradford /The Athletic; photo of Aaron Rodgers: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)